In the Police Incidents dataset, aggravated assault cases closed with an arrest dropped from 49.7% of founded cases in 2015-2019 (2,817 of 5,668) to 33.4% in 2022-2026 (1,969 of 5,901). Unfounded cases are excluded from both periods, and the comparison holds year by year: 53.7% in 2015 and 48.9% in 2019 against 35.1% in 2022, 30.3% in 2023, 32.2% in 2024 and 34.4% in 2025. This is not an effect of newer cases having had less time to resolve, since the 2022 and 2023 cases are three to four years old and still sit well below every year before 2020. The offenses that are not cleared are now recorded as Pending/Possible Leads, which rose from 19.1% of aggravated assault cases in 2015 to 64.9% in 2025. Reported aggravated assault volume over the same span moved from 1,168 cases in 2015 to 1,303 in 2025, so the falling share is not explained by a larger caseload alone. Aggravated assault is reported evenly month to month in every full year measured (highest month is 1.4x to 2.2x the lowest), so the category is a stable basis for comparison.